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by Mike Krumboltz

With just a few days left before the election, we take a look back at the past week’s buzziest political stories. We cover everything from statistical predictions to the media’s playing defense. Read on for the stuff you may have missed while you were busy downloading Joe the Plumber’s latest hit single.

Predictions, predictions, and more predictions
Everyone has a prediction for the election — some are just more informed than others. Sports statistician Nate Silver has taken a mathematical approach to the presidential contest and declared that Sen. Obama has a 96.7% chance of winning the election. Sen. McCain has a 4.75 chance of winning the popular vote, and there’s a 0.25% chance of a tie in the Electoral College. An article from the Chicago Tribune breaks down the rest of the scenarios.

The press plays defense
The media is used to being accused of bias. Perhaps that’s why the McCain camp’s claim that the Los Angeles Times withheld a disparaging video of Barack Obama failed to make waves in the Buzz. Sure, there were stories of protesters and outraged citizens who demanded to see a tape of Obama-praising Palestinian activist Rashid Khalidi, but searches remained mum. Perhaps folks have scandal fatigue.

Doonesbury calls the election
Garry Trudeau, creator of Doonesbury, has called the election for Obama. The Washington Post explains that this coming Wednesday, the day after the election, Doonesbury will assume that Obama won. Why the early decision? Apparently, Trudeau did a “risk assessment” based on Nate Silver’s analysis (above) and decided to take the chance. Papers who don’t wish to run the comic can request a replacement.

Joe the Plumber has gone country
His 15 minutes aren’t up quite yet. Joe Wurzelbacher, made famous during the bizarre third presidential debate, is being pursued for a “major record deal”. According to Politico, his album could be out by Inauguration Day. If only they could package it for a Christmas release, we’d have a gift for everyone on our list.

by Vera H-C Chan

File this under the Halloween Tricks or Treats: Once again, three politicians made the top 10 most searched personalities this month. Considering all the campaign spending and debating and “Saturday Night Live”-ing they had to do, they deserve it. Ponder the month in which the Dow proved manic-depressive and baseball pitted underdog against underdog.

Debates, Infomercials, and Plumbing Issues
When a political candidate calls his own 30-minute ad an infomercial, you know we’re near the end of the slog. October politicking, however, started with a long-awaited meeting of the minds—okay, a rubbernecking event to see which political vice presidential pick would implode first. More bickering followed, in which one name stood above all: Joe the Plumber. The media lavished attention on the undecided, but searches for “early voting,” “absentee ballots,” local polling locales, and last-minute registration.

Losing Interest
Bailouts turned into multiple rescue plans this month, as the U.S. government made an unprecedented move to inject cash directly into banks. A benumbed public had the energy to summon up one more burst of outrage against AIG’s spa retreat, and triggered the beleaguered company’s profile to leap 656% into the top 300 searches. Meanwhile, the Dow whipsawed historic turnabouts. The Fed cut the interest rate to 1%, but at least one blogger is zeroing in on nothing.

Willies Over the Phillies
What a game, watching the Chicago Cubs go against the defending Red Sox champions, in a match that… excuse me, what? Um, so this season’s performance will be brought to you by the understudies. The boys from Philadelphia and Tampa played a nice, albeit lopsided game. Blame it on the rain, but the series made trivia as the lowest-rated in history. Online nostalgia meanwhile pumped up for series 1906 and 1956.

October 2008 Fastest Movers in Search
Search Terms with the Biggest Percentage Changes

1. If I Were a Boy (+67,708%. Beyonce takes on gender issues in her newest single.)
2. Sophie Okonedo (+441,537%. The Oscar-nominated actress opened in “The Secret Life of Bees.”)
3. Early Voting Locations (+41,706%. See above.)
4. Kristin Scott Thomas (+39,463%. The actress got critics’ tongues wagging with her prison take in the French release “I’ve Loved You So Long”)
5. 2008 World Series Schedule (+535,864%. See above)
6. Howard Stern Wedding (+26,706%. The radio show host exchanged rings with galpal at a New York restaurant)
7. Pumpkin Seed Recipe (+22,437%. Halloween hysteria monopolized searches this month, as did gourd recipes.)
8. Bernard Hopkins (+19,125%. Another scrappy Philly, “The Executioner” proved 43 can still be tough when he schooled 26-year-old Kelly Pavlik.)
9. Pumpkin Designs (+18,166%. Even Jack-O’-Lanterns went political this season.)
10. California Fires (+18,111%%. The annual Santa Ana winds spread wildfires in southern California.)

October 2008 Top 10 Personalities
People with the Most Searches Overall

1. Sarah Palin (+13,527%)
2. Britney Spears (-20%)
3. Obama (+42%)
4. Jennifer Hudson (+448%)
5. Miley Cyrus (-40%)
6. Gina Carano (+112%)
7. Angelina Jolie (+84%)
8. Jessica Alba (+8%)
9. Kim Kardashian (-2%)
10. John McCain (+8%)

by Mike Krumboltz

Can you see it? There, on the horizon. It’s the finish line to this bloody election. Before it becomes nothing but a very long, drawn-out memory, let’s take a look back at the campaign’s surprising stars. Folks who, for a variety of reasons, for better or worse, became household names.

Joe the Plumber
Who he is: Just a plumber from Ohio, thank you very much.
Why you know him: John McCain mentioned him a few dozen times in the third debate. Get a room, guys.
Search peak: After McCain rammed his name into the ground, ol’ Joe became a Search phenomenon. Queries instantly surged from nothing into the thousands. Blogs wrote in-depth articles. Even we took a break from writing about Britney and jumped on Joe’s bandwagon.
Interesting related search: There were plenty, including searches on his real name, “joe wurzelbacher” and (brace yourself) “joe the plumber sings.” Apparently plumbing is just a way to pay the bills.

Levi Johnston
Who is he: Soon to be Sarah Palin’s son-in-law.
Why you know him: After word broke that 18-year-old Bristol Palin was pregnant, people wanted to learn more about the proud papa. Searches soared on the handsome hockey player.
Search peak: During the Republican National Convention, the strapping lad stood alongside his special lady. Folks couldn’t get enough, pushing his online profile up 10-fold.
Interesting related search: “levi johnston myspace” was absolutely huge in Search after rumors hit that he’d written he wasn’t interested in having kids. We hope he’s changed his mind.

Beau Biden
Who he is: Son of Joe Biden and Delaware’s Attorney General.
Why you know him: He introduced his Dad at the Democratic National Convention and caused a stir when he said that he wouldn’t be able to be here for his dad during the rest of the campaign. Folks wanted to know why, and discovered he’s also a captain in the National Guard now serving in Iraq.
Search peak: Following his big night at the DNC, he roared into the top 100 searches. One blogger called Beau’s intro the “aw, shucks” moment of the night. Most folks felt it was authentic.
Interesting related search: Though his name was plastered all over the TV screen, many searchers incorrectly typed “bo biden” into Yahoo!.

Reverend Jeremiah Wright
Who he is: Senator Obama’s former pastor and one of the election’s biggest lightning rods.
Why you know him: Wright was embroiled in a controversy after news outlets discovered statements he’d made during a sermon entitled “Confusing God and Government.” The words drew intense media scrutiny and eventually led Obama to resign from Wright’s church.
Search peak: Back in early 2008, searchers were all over the good reverend. Lookups soared overnight and stayed strong for several months. The craze finally subsided in June.
Interesting related searches: After the controversy first hit, lookups soared for “jeremiah wright videos” and “reverend wright clips.” People clearly wanted to see the infamous sermons for themselves.

by Vera H-C Chan

Nevada holds five electoral cards, Colorado plays out nine. Presidential candidates John McCain (R) and Barack Obama (D) hone in on those 14, as November 4 draws ever nearer. The Buzz Log daily countown has already counted the search activity from states Montana and New Hampshire and New Mexico and Virginia. Here is day three in our look at what intel the battleground states are seeking in their presidential pick.

Troop Activity: Searches for McCain’s website remain steady. Lookups for his slogan “john mccain for president” are up 56%. Likely propelled by a Pennsylvania attorney’s lawsuit (summed up in his site Obama Crimes), Nevadans investigate the Democratic contender’s citizenship and birth certificate, and also try to figure out the antichrist prophecy (or at least the blog). Curiosity is also strong about his commercial and website. The combined interest makes lookups for Obama nearly six times that of McCain’s.
Final Offensives: As though the Silver State didn’t have enough Californians already, more have been flocking in by the busloads to persuade the undecided. Among them, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa stumped for the Democratic side Oct. 26. Republican veep hopeful Sarah Palin last stopped by Oct. 21, and she’ll be back with McCain on Election Day eve for a last pull at the electoral jackpot.
Insider View: About a quarter of active voters turned their ballots in early and the vote’s very close, reports the Las Vegas Review Journal. The Washington Independent analyzes one county as a case study in political shifts. And finally, it’s come to this: the battle of the robo-calls. Could a RoboCop revival be far behind?

Troop Activity: No detail is left unturned as Coloradoans conduct due diligence on the candidates in the past seven days. On the McCain side, queries continue for “john mccain website” (+58%) and “mccain palin” (+258%). People also typed in “john mccain meet the press” to follow up on the Republican’s appearance on the NBC news show, and checked the “mccain supporter attacked” story (the volunteer who made the false charges recently agreed to a plea agreement). On the Obama side, suspicion still runs high about his background (”barack obama birth certificate,” “barack obama citizenship,” “is barack obama a us citizen,” “barack obama antichrist prophecy.”). Research also continues into his tax plan, stories about the assassination attempt, and check-ups on his infomercial, and family members (dad, grandmother, mother). McCain took up 13% of all presidential candidate searches, and Obama 87%.
Final Offensives: McCain swung by the Centennial State mid-October, and daughter Meghan followed up in the southern regions Oct. 27. Michelle Obama showed up in Colorado Springs with state first lady Jeannie Ritter on Oct. 28, two days after her husband’s rally. Both parties have set up camps to go door-to-door and dialing for votes, and the TV ads aren’t stopping either.
Insider View: Early voting ends Halloween and mail-in ballots must be received by Election Day 7 p.m. The Denver Post reports that 9% of voters weighed in by midweek. All this battleground romancing, with more than 30 visits, has cost big bucks in police manpower, reports a local Fox station.

scenes from Colorado and Nevada

by Jon Brooks

Bruce Springsteen has made his contribution to the Halloween Buzz by posting a free musical treat on his web site. His new “A Night with the Jersey Devil” video features The Boss re-enacting to a grinding blues beat the origins of the creature occasionally spotted in The Pine Barrens, 1 million acres of forest in southern New Jersey. (Remember that “Sopranos” episode where Paulie and Christopher get lost in the woods? That’s The Pine Barrens.)

Not every cryptozoological beastie has both a song and a hockey team named after it. But that doesn’t mean that on a day like today we shouldn’t pay them homage. Since many creatures that may or may not exist have at least been spotted at the search box, here are the recent top 10:

• Yeti/Abominable Snowman
• Bigfoot/Sasquatch
• Chupacabra
• Loch Ness Monster
• Mothman
• Jersey Devil
• Jackalope
• Skunk Ape
• Wendigo
• Lake Worth Monster

by Claudine Zap

The Buzz today is all about All Hallows Eve. Get your spook on.

1. Carving patterns  (+1,248%). Michaelangelos-in-training sought out online inspiration for their jack-o’-lanterns. For a unique political take, try this.
2. Free halloween e-cards  (+503%). For those not going door to door or hitting the Halloween party scene, consider sending a scare by e-message. Spooky.
3. Halloween Michael Myers  (+242%). Possibly the most frightening of all fictional creeps, the guy from “Halloween” was haunting the Search box. For more on the horror movie hall of fame, go here.
4. Quick Halloween costumes  (+206%). Waiting for the last minute to land on a costume idea? The Internet can help. Over the past month we’ve seen searches on masks, costumes, and with the presidential election days away, political takes.
5. Healthy halloween snacks (+155%). It’s a noble thought: Give the kids showing up at your door something slightly better than candy that still qualifies as a “treat.” (Note: Boxes of raisins do not qualify.) Here, some recipes to whip up with your extra pumpkins.

by Vera H-C Chan

Against the Halloween holiday juggernaut, the specter of a porn comedy isn’t titillating as many people as one would think. Meanwhile, a teen-friendly horror slips past critics, and Guy Ritchie’s newest entry barely gets the sympathy vote. Exception: Clint Eastwood’s “Changeling,” which led last week’s searches despite its limited-release status, should trounce the competition when it opens in wide release. Here are how the three other premieres fare within the Buzz Multiplex.

1. “Zack and Miri Make a Porno” (R). Does the cult of director Kevin Smith, the ’90s indie version of Judd Apatow, still run strong? Somewhat, if nostalgic queries for “kevin smith movies” are any indication. Interest over the past 7 days seem surprisingly low (top 20,000 terms on Yahoo!), despite lots of fuss over the movie’s title. Overall, males (73% of lookups) overwhelmingly prefer this guy-style romantic comedy, but the could’ve-been-an-NC-17-rating-but-R-it-is rating aces out the teen boys. Turns out, though, that all the love is going to star Elizabeth Banks, who plays the titular Miri, with more than triple the queries as the movie title. Rumpled Seth Rogen (as Zach), Justin Long (as a gay porn star) and Smith regular Jason Mewes (as Lester) get some affection too.

2. “The Haunting of Molly Hartley” (PG-13). Is this movie so scary, the “filmmakers, the producers, the distributor” decided it’d scare the polka-dotted panties off the critics? At least the director’s not afraid to grant interviews about this poignant coming-of-age film, up 167% in searches: The tale’s about a teen who finds out her parents made a deal with the devil, and he’s come to collect her soul. Bummer. Potential fans run 71% female, although part of that could be due to the casting of one Chace Crawford of “Gossip Girl” TV fame. Star Haley Bennett only scores a fourth of his online popularity. Double bummer.

3. “RocknRolla” (PG-13). For the last of our rhetorical questions: Does director Guy Ritchie need your sympathy? Separated from his high-powered wife and on a cinematic losing track, Ritchie could use a break. As per usual, he gets a mixed reception: AP says the latest screwball heist comedy shows the director’s “back in form,” and the Boston Globe calls him a “rehabbed Guy Ritchie” displaying the virtue of “restraint.” The McClatchy Newspapers critic begs to differ and deems it “devoid of anything like real feeling.” Either case, the anticipation’s tepid, although the crew of Gerard Butler, Idris Elba, Ludacris, Thandie Newton and Jeremy Piven seems pleasing enough to searchers.

by Claudine Zap

The movie industry is turning from DVDs toward Internet content. Wisely, Tivo and Netflix have teamed up to stream movies directly to your TV. So easy! So instant! We may never leave the couch again, much less the house.

Tivo is the service that lets viewers record and watch programs on their own schedule. Netflix is the online movie rental company. Together, they will entertain the pants off of us, we predict.

Although details of the deal are still on the down-low, it sounds like it will go something like this: You’re home one night and you’ve sent back all your Netflix movie rentals. There’s nothing on TV, the kids are bouncing off the walls, and you cannot, will not watch “Nemo” for the zillionth time. Going out for dinner and a movie (not to mention hiring a babysitter) has become the cash equivalent of a week’s salary. If you’re still employed.

What’s left? Subscribers of Tivo who are also members of Netflix can order movies or TV shows online for free — which will be automatically added to your Tivo lineup, conveniently accessible from your remote. The choices of TV episodes and movies are practically endless, with 12,000 selections ready to go. This is all part of a move to compete with services like Apple’s iTunes, which offer similar options online.

The partnership will be available in early December. That’s right, saving your sanity, and your wallet, one TV at a time.

by Michael Krumboltz

Last night’s Barack Obama “infomercial” crammed a lot of stuff into its 30-minute run-time. There were stories from “real Americans” (who, coincidentally, happen to live in swing states), clips from speeches, and personal stories on the candidate himself. But of all the ad’s content, folks seemed most interested in the portion on Obama’s parents and relatives.

Following Barack-o-vision, searches soared on all kinds of familial terms. Queries on “barack obama’s father” and “barack obama sr.” both surged. Related terms on “barack obama sr. biography” and “pictures of barack obama dad” posted strong gains. The fact that the presidential candidate barely knew his father must have helped spur the interest among viewers.

Barack’s mother’s story was touched upon during the ad/documentary, and drew tremendous interest in Search. Lookups for “barack obama mom” and “ann dunham cancer” jumped following the primetime ad, as did queries for “barack obama grandmother” and “obama grandparents,” with whom he lived during his childhood. 

The infomercial also mentioned that Obama’s grandmother’s brother, Charlie Payne, fought in World War II. Lookups for “charlie payne” jumped during the telecast as people sought more information.

The ad itself drew mixed reviews. Some felt it skipped over “budget realities,” while others felt it was “worth the cost.” These differing reactions may just be partisan bickering, but one fact can’t be argued: The ad performed well in the ratings, beating out “the usual broadcast programming in the 8 p.m. time period.” Eat your heart out, “Next Top Model.”

by Vera H-C Chan

West Virginia and New Mexico have five electoral votes apiece, and John McCain (R) and Barack Obama (D) are determined none go to waste … or at least, to the other. Wednesday, we covered candidate searches from Montana and New Hampshire residents 17 and older. Here is day two of the Buzz Log countdown.

• Troop Activity: McCain’s queries (+6%) holds steady among New Mexicans. Also on the rise are Obama searches, which range from lookups for his birth certificate and his socialistic tendencies to his “website.” In total, the Democrat makes up 80% of the combined searches for the two candidates.
• Final Offensives: The Cactus State has been a family affair: McCain, his veep pick Sarah Palin, and wife Cindy McCain barnstormed the area, while Michelle Obama followed two days after her husband’s Oct. 26 visit. Also, Arizona senator Jon Kyl stumped for McCain on Wednesday.
• Insider View: The bimonthly New Mexico Sun News apparently didn’t want to disrupt its printing schedule. The paper went ahead and risked a Dewey headline by declaring a Democratic win. Meanwhile, a University of New Mexico paper basks in the attention and thanks the Electoral College.

• Troop Activity: Both contenders are seeing a rise in searches: The Republican is up 47%, while the Democrat pumped up another 60%. Combined, Obama’s searches comprise 75% of lookups, but a significant number may indicate continued unease with his background (”barack obama birth certificate,” “barack obama biography,” and “michelle obama“). Research into “obama tax calculator” is still strong, despite a 66% drop over the past week.
• Final Offensives: McCain runs strong here, but former president Bill Clinton will follow up vice-presidential nominee Joe Biden’s Oct. 24 visit with a Nov. 1 swing through the Mountain State.
• Insider View: Reports of the state’s glitches with voting machines had apparently played out on “The Simpsons,” according to Techdirt blog. A Jackson County clerk however disputes the video evidence—filmed by a Berkeley group—in the Charleston Gazette. In other news, a bookstore has sold twice as many Obama life-size cutouts, but the manager says she doesn’t know what people do with those cutouts in the privacy of their own home.

scenes from West Virginia and Montana